It’s the economy, stupid.
Former President Bill Clinton’s political strategist James Carville’s famous quip in the 1992 presidential election is truer than ever for 2024.
A new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in seven battleground states, the second poll this week to reflect Trump’s edge on the incumbent Democrat.
While national security is a rising concern in the minds of Americans, the troubled economy and Biden’s handling of it remains top of mind.
Trump holds a combined 4 percentage point lead over Biden (47 percent to 43 percent) in critical swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In Georgia, the former president leads Biden by five points, and he’s up five points in Arizona and North Carolina. Trump’s lead is narrower in Wisconsin (2 points) and Pennsylvania (1 point).
Pollsters said the picture looks bleaker for Biden when looking deeper into independents, expected to play a pivotal role in deciding the 2024 presidential election in swing states that are expected to again play an outsized role in the election.
“Among the 1,323 self-identified independents across the seven states, Biden is 10 points behind Trump on the ballot that includes third-party candidates, and he is eight points behind Trump in a direct head-to-head,” the poll summary states.
Biden and Trump, who is dominating in the Republican presidential primary polls, are effectively tied in Michigan, with the president leading his likely opponent in Nevada by 3 percentage points, according to the Morning Consult poll.
Trump leads Biden in key swing states, per our survey with @business:
AZ
Biden: 43%
Trump: 47%GA
Biden: 43%
Trump: 48%MI
Biden: 44%
Trump: 44%NV
Biden: 46%
Trump: 43%NC
Biden: 43%
Trump: 47%PA
Biden: 45%
Trump: 46%WI
Biden: 44%
Trump: 46%https://t.co/ht2f2Sk2Wq pic.twitter.com/kAceURs9fv— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) October 19, 2023
Nearly half of all voters surveyed believe “Bidenomics,” the administration’s term for the president’s economic policies, has been bad for America’s economy. Just 26 percent said Biden’s policies have been good.
Many voters don’t think “Bidenomics,” the phrase the president has used to brand his economic policies, has been good for America.
Good: 26%
No Impact: 10%
Bad: 49%
Don't Know/No Opinion: 15%https://t.co/ApVPqlsn1p pic.twitter.com/heYslrXhnI— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) October 19, 2023
“Driving Trump’s ballot strength is the trust he garners over Biden in handling the most important issues facing the country today — especially regarding the economy,” the poll summary notes.
Swing state voters trust Trump significantly more than Biden on the economy (49 percent to 35 percent), with independents holding even less confidence in Biden on this key issue (47 percent to 25 percent), the poll finds.
Despite robust September job numbers, inflation continues to plague consumers, especially where it hurts most —food, gasoline, and other recurring expenses. The University of Michigan’s monthly consumer sentiment gauge dropped by 7 percent overall to 63 from 68.1 in September.
The International Monetary Fund this week warned that “with wage growth slowing, savings accumulated during the pandemic running out, and the Federal Reserve maintaining tight monetary policy, growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2023 and in 2024.”
Much is subject to change in the 13 months before Election Day, particularly in a race that is likely to feature an unpopular octogenarian president and a former president facing multiple federal indictments as he campaigns to retake the White House.
But at the moment, the poll finds Biden has lost the backing of 14 percent of swing state voters vital to his victory in 2020. That compares with a 9-point attrition rate among Trump’s 2020 swing state supporters.
Earlier this week, a poll from United Kingdom-based pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies found Trump leading Biden in four of six battleground states. The former president was up by 5 percentage points in Florida (44 percent to 39 percent), North Carolina (43 percent to 38 percent), and in Arizona (44 percent to 39 percent). The two were tied in Michigan, and Biden was up 1 point in Pennsylvania.
The poll, in partnership with The Telegraph, showed Trump leading Biden in five of the six swing states when Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently left the Democratic Party to run as an independent, was included in the survey.
“Whereas some commentary has suggested that Kennedy’s run as an independent would hurt Trump more than Biden, our polling suggests an independent RFK Jr. candidacy may help Trump by a slight margin,” the poll notes.
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M.D. Kittle is the National Political Editor for The Star News Network.
Photo “Joe Biden” by Joe Biden.
